On the record see profile →
Global online-panel coverage failures happen to under-state right-populist support everywhere, Canada included
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
“"Global online-panel coverage failures happen to under-state right-populist support everywhere, Canada included"”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
The average national polling miss under-estimated CPC by ~2 points in 2019, 2021, and 2025
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
“In 2019, 2021, and 2025, the average national polling miss under-estimated CPC by ~2 points”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
The largest CPC under-estimation is in regions where Conservatives are dominant
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
“the largest CPC under-estimation is in regions where Conservatives are dominant (Prairies, Alberta) and least stigmatized”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
CPC 66.5% in three-way swing
PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the T
“one | CPC 66.5% in three-way swing”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
Poilievre 80.86%
PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the T
“Poilievre 80.86% (model projected 73%)”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
CPC under-estimate ~3pts on prairies
PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the T
“CPC under-estimate ~3pts on prairies (–6.3pts in some regional cuts)”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
Disputed — who says what, against what see standalone →
These are things people say about CPC that aren't settled fact — each one attributed to who's actually claiming it, so a claim never quietly passes as established just because it showed up in a document. Weigh it yourself.
Disputed
"The spiral-of-silence hypothesis is fatal"
Unattributed assertion · stance: critical
The evidence on file mostly runs against this claim.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad ↗
Disputed
"Global online-panel coverage failures happen to under-state right-populist support everywhere, Canada included"
Unattributed assertion · stance: neutral
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover ↗
Timeline see standalone →
2019
2019
2019 Canadian election
2021
2021
2021 Canadian election
2025
2025
2025 Canadian election
Apr 28, 2025
2025 general election
2024
Dec 16, 2024
Cloverdale–Langley City by-election