FILE ON TETLOCKPerson
Tetlock
starting from the outside view (base rates from similar past cases) and then adjusting for case-specific factors produces dramatically better-calibrated assessments than building estimates purely from case details.
DEVELOPING FILE
This file has 2 sources on record so far more may surface as the record grows.
On the record see profile →
starting from the outside view (base rates from similar past cases) and then adjusting for case-specific factors produces dramatically better-calibrated assessments than building estimates purely from case details
Disputed — who says what, against what see standalone →
These are things people say about Tetlock that aren't settled fact — each one attributed to who's actually claiming it, so a claim never quietly passes as established just because it showed up in a document. Weigh it yourself.
Disputed
"Tetlock's research identifies calibration as the hallmark of superforecasters"
Unattributed assertion · stance: pro
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
The CANOPTICON Epistemological Framework: a synthesis across ↗