Léger
no publicly released datasets from Elections Canada, Statistics Canada, Abacus, Léger, EKOS, Angus Reid, Nanos or Ipsos publish a 'vote intention by employment sector' crosstab on a regular basis. Last-digit uniformity tests are more apt2.
no publicly released datasets from Elections Canada, Statistics Canada, Abacus, Léger, EKOS, Angus Reid, Nanos or Ipsos publish a 'vote intention by employment sector' crosstab on a regular basis
Last-digit uniformity tests are more apt
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
Benford's Law analysis on poll percentages is largely inappropriate
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
Léger's federal contracts are ~$1.37M
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
Léger was co-founded in 1986 by Marcel Léger
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
The 12 federal contracts worth $1.37M in 2024–25 represent perhaps 1.5–2.5% of revenue
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
No Canadian pollster operates a probability-based panel
The Quebec sub-industry has historically been more accurate at provincial Quebec elections than English Canadian firms have been at Canadian federal elections.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
English Canadian polling has structurally moved away from CATI; Quebec polling has retained it longer.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
The cost to build is $25M, and $5–10M/year to maintain.
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
Revenue estimates for individual polling firms are rough.
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
Léger's hybrid telephone+online approach performs better than pure online, slightly worse than pure IVR.
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
These are things people say about Léger that aren't settled fact — each one attributed to who's actually claiming it, so a claim never quietly passes as established just because it showed up in a document. Weigh it yourself.
"the private-sector revenue dwarfs the federal revenue for the publicly-visible pollsters"
"Léger's 85–90% concordance claim is not an independently validated benchmark."
"Firms are using synthetic respondents to fill gaps where coverage is failing."
"Léger is structurally insulated from federal partisan capture"
"Léger VP of Transformation and AI Sarah Mottet claimed an 85–90% concordance score between Smart Persona output and traditional human panel results."
"Léger's federal contracts (~$1.37M) are perhaps 1.5–2.5% of estimated revenue"
"Léger is the *least* susceptible to federal POR contract capture among the top-tier firms"
"The synthetic respondent inflection point is the highest-leverage Pass 6 target."